Sunday, April 17, 2022

Ukranian War links

Ukraine Live Map:
https://liveuamap.com/en

ISW Daily Briefs:
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Russian losses -- this seems to follow the UKR General Staff released numbers along with a "rule of thumb" calculation for wounded.

Remember 1) Wounded does not mean permanently removed from combat; 2) I suspect Russia may have a worse KIA:WIA ratio than the US has in recent large wars -- they may be closer to WWII ratios along the lines of 1:2.; 3) the "intended for invasion" is from what was staged in February and likely some replacements have been moved up, but in many areas the "armed forces" total likely way overstates what is available on time lines measured in months to being returned to combat ready status from long term storage.
https://minusrus.com/en?v=1648007431105




Background Material:

The Battalion Tactical Group that makes up the basic manuever element of the Russan army:
https://www.benning.army.mil/Armor/eARMOR/content/issues/2017/Spring/ARMOR%20Spring%202017%20edition.pdf

White Phosphorus is not banned:
https://www.lawfareblog.com/jus-bello-white-phosphorus-getting-law-correct

Finnish Intelligence lecture on Russian culture:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kF9KretXqJw&t=0s
In annoying computerized English if you just want to listen and don't speak Finn: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5F45i0v_u6s
Ethnicity of Russian military (hint: It's not Russian.
https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1506479259866394625.html
The difficulty of taking out bridges by air:
https://www.airforcemag.com/article/1293bridge/

Setting 155mm fuzes:
https://ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/ndia/2006/fuze/walker.pdf

More on Excalibur:
https://ndiastorage.blob.core.usgovcloudapi.net/ndia/2012/annual_psr/Milner.pdf

Basic forms of manuever:
http://goodbadstrategy.com/wp-content/downloads/FM100-5_Envelopment.pdf


Analysis:

https://archive.ph/2022.04.27-221025/https://www.economist.com/briefing/how-deep-does-the-rot-in-the-russian-army-go/21808989#selection-827.698-834.0

Need some telenko (sp?)


Emotional reaction from Pentagon spokesman:
https://youtu.be/592w6smbHi4?t=1958

7 February 2022 -- Russian analysis right down to predicting lend-lease returning:
https://russiandefpolicy.com/2022/02/07/


Of course they don't have functioning satellites...
https://www.rferl.org/a/russia-satellites-ukraine-war-gps/31797618.html











Russia will always...Russia:
WWI?
...go back even further.

Although the Ministry of the Navy acknowledged the importance of wireless telegraphy in naval affairs, in deed it did not show any initiative at all. In reality, the Navy remained without radio equipment, and the production of such was at the lowest possible level. The Russo-Japanese War, which broke out in 1904, showed how criminal was the complacency of bureaucratic heads in the Army and Navy... they did not take a single practical step to organize properly the production of radioequipment and to supply the units of the Army and warships with it.... Makarov spoke of the absurd state of affairs in the country, for although radio was invented in Russia, the country had to order radio equipment from abroad.”

That Russian ship that was falsely reported as sunk? The Admiral Makarov? Yeah, that's the guy it was named after. He was killed early on in the Russo-Japanese War.

Thus, and unexpectedly, the Russians faced an enemy with superior although not cutting edge communications technology. The Russians were at a disadvantage in capability with unsuitable German equipment, and the Japanese had an enormous advantage in readiness. The Russians hardly understood how to use their equipment. The Japanese wove theirs into a powerful, integrated communications web, on land and at sea.

https://www.californiahistoricalradio.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/BartWirelessWar190205Lee.pdf


Wednesday, April 13, 2022

Jeep Run -- MA / NH Border


10 in total; I parked where I can't be seen in the pic.




Hey, it's me!



I noped right on out of the left side before Rich even got to the other end :D












I believe the count was 4 Jeeps bypassed, 5 Jeeps went through the crack.

Sunday, March 20, 2022

Peepers 2022

First heard 17 March 2022 3/23/21 3/21/20 3/30/19 3/25/18 4/5/17 3/10/16 4/10/15 ... 3/21/12 3/30/11

Thursday, February 24, 2022

When you finally figure it out...

...and you feel like an incredibly smart dumb guy.

So trying to figure out the logistics over doing another Jeep journey out west had eluded me for months.

Since it takes 4-5 days to get out to the areas I want to be, that's a "week" of driving right there.

And moving slowly hotel to hotel a couple hours apart while working during the day -- breaking down a big monitor and keyboard, worrying about not having late checkout till 5pm, etc is a lot of work, and really only saves a day over a work week.

Then getting ready for bed after 10pm changes last night it suddenly clicked.

I already WFH (usually) two days a week, I've WFH two straight weeks this year already due to various issues.

So here's the key --

(And thinking 2023 for this)

Take one weekend to travel to the St. Louis area;

Work remotely from the same hotel room through Friday evening.

Then a two week vacation starts.

Co-ordinate with Eric that I either pick him up for the first week in Denver, and drop him off in Las Vegas. Maybe get Sam, too.

Or, I bee-bop with the Jeep and pickup Eric for the 2nd week in Las Vegas then drop him off in Denver on the way home.

Spend a weekend to go Denver to St. Louis.

Work remotely from a hotel for a week;

And then a weekend to get back home.

In short: weekend driving--week working remote--two week vacation--week working remote--weekend driving

Sunday, February 13, 2022

The (Almost a) Blizzard of '22


Near blizzard conditions, worst during the day on Saturday? Sounds like time to test the Jeep in craptastic conditions!

When I left...
When I got home...






Approaching Allen Hill @ Route 6




Divided section of Route 6 headed towards Danielson.



Maple Street




Route 44 approaching Route 21, Putnam



Route 21 in Putnam/Thompson



Was planning to go to Eric's, got about half way there when I decided to turn around.

After going through Putnam, with the temp dropping a bit and driving into the wind, the snow was melting and freezing to the wipers in a way making me stop every ~10 minutes to clear them.

Seemed better once I turned around. Got a little warmer headed back south, but still took a lot of wiper fluid, but at least I didn't stop again once I was headed back home.



Route 6 headed back into Brooklyn...





The Day After...





It's a good day to stay in the house and cook.

Who am I kidding? With that temp I'm not going out plowing when I can work from home and temps in the 40s and 50s are forecast in a few days. Just hunkered down and didn't even put on socks for a week (laughed when I went to put socks on the following Saturday and realized they were still all folded from Sunday laundry :D )







Jeep Run -- CT/RI Borderlands

Not much snow on the ground. I'm still pretty amazed what the Jeep can do; wasn't even aired down. Used my rear lockers a few times on obstacles to be safe but likely didn't even need that. (Only felt like one time they actually "locked" up while grabbing on a particularly difficult spot.)











Helped this guy mostly with advice...he had gotten through the worst of it, his vehicle more than capable of the rest. He chickened out looking at some large puddles (mostly due to ice blocking the road drainage). He was trying to turn around and having to use traction boards and a shovel. Got him headed back in the original direction of travel and told him which was the best option for him at a four way intersection ahead just out of sight.


At the end, there was a serious accident at Route 44. Had to turn around several folks whose GPS were telling them to take their mini-vans and such up Olney Keech Road to bypass it. At least they wouldn't have made it more than 250' past where the pavement ends on that road this time of year.