Friday, December 23, 2016

Presidential Vote by Congressional District

One of the Democrats structural problems is they tend to congregate in urban areas, and also to some extent they have made pacts in Southern states for "majority minority" districts that is a voluntary gerrymandering to ensure, primarily, that blacks representatives get elected to Congress in non-competitive seats.

While the overall map is very red, what it doesn't show is the Republicans fight for their seats in a lot more places that split say 55% Republican, 45% Democrat typically...while the Democrats have about three times as many seats voting 70%+ for them -- and they vote much more intensely for Democrats than any Republican district votes Republican. Seriously, 96.7% for Obama in a single district?

All 435 Districts, 2012:
Mean: 51.48
Standard Deviation: 15.75
Districts by >= 70%: 56
Biggest Victory: 96.7% (how is that even possible?)
Districts with bigger victories than Romney's largest: 26

Mean: 46.94
SD: 15.72
Districts by >= 70%: 19
Biggest Victory: 80.2%

Of the 287 Districts certified so far for 2016:
Mean (Average)
Standard deviation
Districts by >= 70%: 40
Biggest Victory: 87.4%
Districts with bigger victories than Trump's largest: 13

Mean (Average)
Standard deviation
Districts by >= 70%: 12
Biggest Victory: 79.6%

Data from: Daily Kos
Aided in my analysis by:
Standard Deviation Calculator
Columns to Commas

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